Global Warming Experts Scared, But Optimistic


A booming thunderstorm moved south and the skies cleared just in time for city leaders to speak on climate change at the Gondola Plaza yesterday. Members of the Aspen Global Change Institute and the City of Aspen’s Canary Initiative were on hand to present the findings of a comprehensive study, “Climate Change and Aspen: An Assessment of Impacts and Potential Responses.”

Aspen Mayor Helen Klanderud and Dan Richardson, the City’s Global Warming Project Manager, introduced a number of speakers, all of whom agreed that climate change is a serious problem requiring immediate action.

“Two questions I am commonly asked,” said Susan Joy Hassol, writer of Too Hot Not to Handle, “Do we really know it is warming and is it really caused by human activity? The short answers are “yes and yes.”

Hassol co-authored A Change of Climate with CORE Director, Randy Udall, an article that offers support to the theory that human activity is accelerating the warming trend.

According to the National Academy of Sciences, “Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising . . . There is general agreement that the observed warming is real and particularly strong within the past 20 years.”

In 2001, a study conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded, “there is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is a attributable to human activities.”

Udall later discussed Aspen’s strong commitment to reducing CO2 emissions, explaining that the city hopes to get 100 percent of its energy from renewable sources within ten years.

President of the Union of Concerned Scientists, Kevin Knobloch, said this of the study, “the results are scary and alarming,” but was optimistic regarding the future, pointing to the economic benefits that will result from investment in areas such as fuel efficiency and renewable energy.

John Katzenberger, Director of the Aspen Global Change Institute, the organization that commissioned the study, said this is likely the most comprehensive climate study ever conducted by a town Aspen’s size.

“Climate Change and Aspen” took into account three emission output scenarios – low, medium and high – and projected the impact of each through 2100. 

Some key findings of the study:

• In the past 25 years, average temperatures have increased 3.0 degrees Fahrenheit.
• Using a middle emissions output scenario, average temperatures will increase another 3-4 degrees by 2030.
• From 2030 to 2100 the low emissions scenario will result in a 5.2 – 7.7 degree Fahrenheit increase in temperature. The high emissions scenario will result in an increase of 11.3 – 16.9 degrees.
• The high greenhouse gas emissions scenario will likely end skiing in Aspen by 2100.
• Fires will increase in size and frequency.
• Plant and animal species will diminish due to a decrease in inhabitable terrain caused by warming temperatures.

Just before the press conference ended a man in the audience asked an interesting question: “Do you think Aspen can lead the world in change?”

Mayor Klanderud stepped in to answer. “Aspen is a well known place,” she said. Citing Aspen’s participation in the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement, the Klanderud emphasized that action is taking place at a local level despite the federal government’s rejection of Kyoto. The Mayor suggested that Aspen’s actions could educate and influence visitors from all over the world who will then encourage change in their own communities.

To learn what you can do to combat global warming click on the Canary Initiative’s “Ten Things That You Can Do.”

See also Ski Industry Facing Economic Disaster, which discusses the recent climate report conducted by Colorado College.

Posted in: Aspen, Colorado, Environment, Pitkin County

6 Responses to Global Warming Experts Scared, But Optimistic

  1. alpha6 says:

    More of the Sky is falling crowd. Here are what some “real” experts are sayin.

    2/7/06 – “Don’t believe the hype,” says Richard Lindzen, Professor of Atmospheric Science at M.I.T.
    “Al Gore is wrong. There’s no ‘consensus’ on global warming.” “There is a clear attempt,” says
    Lindzen, “to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition.”

    12 June 06
    “Gore’s circumstantial arguments are so weak that they are pathetic,” says Professor
    Bob Carter of the Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University, in Australia .
    “The man is an embarrassment to US science and its many fine practitioners, a lot of whom know
    (but feel unable to state publicly) that his propaganda crusade is mostly based on junk science.”

    Global warming is a hoax
    5 Jun 06 — So says William Gray, professor emeritus, who works in the
    atmospheric science department of Colorado State University.

    Kyoto is pointless, say 60 leading scientists
    4 Apr 2006 – More than 60 leading international climate-change experts ask Canada’s
    prime minister to review Canada’s global warming policies. The list of brave signatories
    looks like a list of “Who’s Who” of the world’s scientists.

    Arctic Sea Level Falling – 15 Jun 06
    Arctic sea level has been falling more than 2mm a year – a movement
    that [supposedly] sets the region against the global trend of rising waters

    And I could go on and on. So for all you chicken littles who refuse to do your own research and believe the hype, run! Or better yet, just continue to hid your head in the sand.

  2. alpha6 says:

    More of the Sky is falling crowd. Here are what some “real” experts are sayin.

    2/7/06 – “Don’t believe the hype,” says Richard Lindzen, Professor of Atmospheric Science at M.I.T.
    “Al Gore is wrong. There’s no ‘consensus’ on global warming.” “There is a clear attempt,” says
    Lindzen, “to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition.”

    12 June 06
    “Gore’s circumstantial arguments are so weak that they are pathetic,” says Professor
    Bob Carter of the Marine Geophysical Laboratory at James Cook University, in Australia .
    “The man is an embarrassment to US science and its many fine practitioners, a lot of whom know
    (but feel unable to state publicly) that his propaganda crusade is mostly based on junk science.”

    Global warming is a hoax
    5 Jun 06 — So says William Gray, professor emeritus, who works in the
    atmospheric science department of Colorado State University.

    Kyoto is pointless, say 60 leading scientists
    4 Apr 2006 – More than 60 leading international climate-change experts ask Canada’s
    prime minister to review Canada’s global warming policies. The list of brave signatories
    looks like a list of “Who’s Who” of the world’s scientists.

    Arctic Sea Level Falling – 15 Jun 06
    Arctic sea level has been falling more than 2mm a year – a movement
    that [supposedly] sets the region against the global trend of rising waters

    And I could go on and on. So for all you chicken littles who refuse to do your own research and believe the hype, run! Or better yet, just continue to hid your head in the sand.

  3. danr says:

    alpha6 would like readers to believe that there is not an unprecedented international scientific consensus that humans are the largest contributor to global warming by quoting the same contrarians used in every skeptic website, many funded by the fossil fuel industry. For those with doubts, do as he says and do some homework, just look at who’s funding the research, verfiy that it is peer-reviewed and that other accredited scientists agree with the findings. Doing so will eliminate the doubt.
    For those ready to move beyond the alpha6′s, please visit http://www.canaryinitiative.com to learn more about what changes are projected in Aspen (via the Climate Impact Assessement page) or what solututions are proposed and avaialbale (via the draft Canary Action Plan page).
    For me personally, using alternative transportation and investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy is an easy decision. By doing so, I’m not only reducing my contribution to global warming, I’m saving money, feeding the local economy, reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil and with any luck, improving my two sons’ quality of life. I’d rather pursue these goals than waste any more time debating.

  4. danr says:

    alpha6 would like readers to believe that there is not an unprecedented international scientific consensus that humans are the largest contributor to global warming by quoting the same contrarians used in every skeptic website, many funded by the fossil fuel industry. For those with doubts, do as he says and do some homework, just look at who’s funding the research, verfiy that it is peer-reviewed and that other accredited scientists agree with the findings. Doing so will eliminate the doubt.
    For those ready to move beyond the alpha6′s, please visit http://www.canaryinitiative.com to learn more about what changes are projected in Aspen (via the Climate Impact Assessement page) or what solututions are proposed and avaialbale (via the draft Canary Action Plan page).
    For me personally, using alternative transportation and investing in energy efficiency and renewable energy is an easy decision. By doing so, I’m not only reducing my contribution to global warming, I’m saving money, feeding the local economy, reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil and with any luck, improving my two sons’ quality of life. I’d rather pursue these goals than waste any more time debating.

  5. alpha6 says:

    I guess someone forgot to tell South Africa about the “global warming.”

    8-2-06 S. Africans shiver through harsh winter:

    JOHANNESBURG, South Africa – Snow. Floods. Icy winds. Maybe even a tornado. South Africans are facing one of their harshest winters in years, with at least four deaths blamed on flooding from heavy rain that has caused travel delays in the south and west of the country.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060802/ap_on_re_af/south_africa_cold_snap

  6. alpha6 says:

    I guess someone forgot to tell South Africa about the “global warming.”

    8-2-06 S. Africans shiver through harsh winter:

    JOHANNESBURG, South Africa – Snow. Floods. Icy winds. Maybe even a tornado. South Africans are facing one of their harshest winters in years, with at least four deaths blamed on flooding from heavy rain that has caused travel delays in the south and west of the country.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060802/ap_on_re_af/south_africa_cold_snap

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