In light of this week’s instability in the global financial markets, I thought it would be beneficial to impart my investment wisdom to the readers of Aspen Post.
Let me begin by explaining to you, the reader, why I am qualified to give advice on matters as complex as the international financial markets. I have an MBA, which proves that I am adequately equipped to memorize and regurgitate (mostly in the form of multiple choice exams) vast amounts of conceptual information with little or no relevance to reality.
Following graduate school, I took a job as a foreign exchange “Analyst” at a major bank. During this time I was privy to the latest news and information concerning markets from Brazil to Kuwait. I studied this information and scanned long lists of transactions made by the currency traders, anxiety riddled men who wore expensive suits, received heavy bonuses and talked openly about their health problems; minor ailments such as ulcers, hypertension and heart disease. How I longed to be one of these dead men walking.
Before I threw what little money I had into the currency markets, I thought it best to invest in low-risk, high-growth stocks, or “safe bets” as some like to call them. I needed a nest egg, a foundation. After some research, I selected two stocks that most analysts had on their list of top picks for the next decade – Cisco Systems and Pfizer. I bought Cisco Systems at $100 a share, Pfizer at $42. Over the next six months Cisco increased to $150 a share and split 2 for 1, while Pfizer toyed with $50 a share. I bragged about my investment prowess to colleagues and quietly began envisioning my inevitable rise to the trading floor.
After a few months on the job, I was convinced I held the world’s knowledge and was fully qualified to tackle currency markets. I set up a hypothetical account online with a balance of $100,000. Within three weeks that hypothetical money was gone. I couldn’t understand it. “There must be a glitch in the software program,” I thought. “This can’t be accurate. My hypothetical money was supposed to have doubled, not disappeared.” I tried it again. Unfortunately, the outcome was the same.
With an understanding that the currency markets mind no logic, I decided that fortunes are made not by investing your own measly purse, but by taking a job with an equity stake in a high-flying startup. In 1999, I joined a frighteningly enthusiastic group of twenty-somethings whose goal was to create a billion dollar company. We raised many millions, spent many millions, made nothing. After three years we closed our doors.
In the aftermath of the .com crash, I was left scratching my head. How did this happen? I was supposed to be rich by now. Retired. Gazing across the Caribbean from my St. Barths cottage.
Not only was I without a job, the value of my investment portfolio had decreased 75 percent. Cisco was sitting around $12 a share. Pfizer was in the low $20’s. And these were supposed to be two of the best investments according to the nation’s top analysts! Nothing made sense, so I decided to abandon business altogether and become a writer. Another safe bet, financially speaking.
You may be asking yourself, where is the investment “wisdom” this guy promised. If there is one thing he’s done well, it’s lose. In fact, he’s a consummate loser. Loser, ad infinitum.
In response, I remind you, there are lessons in losing. Lessons, you could say, that equate to wisdom.
#1) There is no such thing as a “safe bet.” The phrase itself is an oxymoron, “moron” being the operative term for those who believe that there is such a thing.
#2) Today the novice is called a speculator, tomorrow indigent. To paraphrase Mark Twain’s famous quote on investing, “October is a particularly dangerous month to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.”
#3) Unless you were born with the uncanny insight of Warren Buffet, invest in index funds. Such a strategy gives you the best chance of attaining the stock market’s historical average (7 percent annual return). Don’t trust your money with people who call themselves “stock brokers” just because they have passed a test and have a certificate hanging in their cubicle. Remember, monkeys throwing darts consistently outperform humans who pick stocks for a living.
#4) Join the herd. Take a 9 to 5. Draw a regular paycheck. Ignore the yearnings of the soul. Be content with insignificant accomplishments, such as a 3 percent raise or a new job title. Following your passions, though recommended for those who desire a life of fulfillment, may lead to bankruptcy and destitution. When considering a career it is probably wise to choose one that promises “security” rather than some hair-brained scheme that inspires you. I’ve found that inspiration is almost always followed by financial crisis and hunger, both ruthless killers of dreams.
To my readers of newfound wisdom, I wish you all financial health and prosperity in today’s volatile markets. Building wealth in the stock market is still possible, but if you fail, don’t lament. Take solace in the fact that most people do.

[Join the herd. Take a 9 to 5. Draw a regular paycheck. Ignore the yearnings of the soul. Be content with insignificant accomplishments, such as a 3 percent raise or a new job title. Following your passions, though recommended for those who desire a life of fulfillment, may lead to bankruptcy and destitution.]
China has the Renminbi (or as the base unit is more commonly known, the “Yuan”) pegged to the U.S. dollar, which is why the DJI took a nose dive this week. On Tuesday China’s indexes dropped eight percent and drove the Dow Jones Industrial Index into 412 point dive…
I have not only known the yearnings of the soul, I have chased them down, even if I haven’t caught most of them…
Anyone who thinks he or she can measure my accomplishments and deem them insignificant is someone for whom I have no time.
Tomorrow morning, I will get up early, make sandwiches and breakfast and get my children ready for a day of skiing.
That, friends, is no “insignificant accomplishment.”
Cheers,
[Join the herd. Take a 9 to 5. Draw a regular paycheck. Ignore the yearnings of the soul. Be content with insignificant accomplishments, such as a 3 percent raise or a new job title. Following your passions, though recommended for those who desire a life of fulfillment, may lead to bankruptcy and destitution.]
China has the Renminbi (or as the base unit is more commonly known, the “Yuan”) pegged to the U.S. dollar, which is why the DJI took a nose dive this week. On Tuesday China’s indexes dropped eight percent and drove the Dow Jones Industrial Index into 412 point dive…
I have not only known the yearnings of the soul, I have chased them down, even if I haven’t caught most of them…
Anyone who thinks he or she can measure my accomplishments and deem them insignificant is someone for whom I have no time.
Tomorrow morning, I will get up early, make sandwiches and breakfast and get my children ready for a day of skiing.
That, friends, is no “insignificant accomplishment.”
Cheers,
Yes Mitch, those insignifigant accomplishments like getting a toddler in skiboots for example, can be more satisfying that putting 2 large into your 401k.
I still measure my financial success by how good a deal I can get on new skiis boots and bindings, and ultimately how I get down the ridge of bell.
Just another shanghai surprise.
That was a great post, Keith (and Mitch)!
Yes Mitch, those insignifigant accomplishments like getting a toddler in skiboots for example, can be more satisfying that putting 2 large into your 401k.
I still measure my financial success by how good a deal I can get on new skiis boots and bindings, and ultimately how I get down the ridge of bell.
Just another shanghai surprise.
That was a great post, Keith (and Mitch)!