As a former student of business, I am schooled in the science of Economic forecasting. Therefore, I feel it is my duty to inform the lay public of the impending doom we Aspenites face in the coming year. I’m afraid all indicators point to a major downturn in the Aspen economy. Below I have outlined some of my more significant predictions for 2008.

U.S. Dollar Continues to Stink

The bludgeoned US Dollar will weaken even further against the Euro and British Pound, enabling more stinky Europeans to vacation in Aspen on the cheap. (One of my currency models actually shows the US dollar going on par with the Albanian Lek by year-end, though that is a worst-case scenario). Encouraged by the purchasing power of visitors from across the pond, members of City Council will propose that Aspen become a sovereign nation and apply to become a member of the European Union. To garner support, the mayor will argue that going to the Euro will enable locals to buy more stuff at Wal Mart and Target. Ultimately, the proposal will fail, and Aspen will remain part of the fledgling United State of America.

Service Industry Personnel Strapped For Cash

The firm $50 handshake will be replaced by the far less appealing stale-fish $5 variety, as Americans are forced to vacation almost solely on credit. This fact, coupled by the increased number of non-tipping Europeans vacationing in Aspen, will cause service industry personnel to downsize from one-bedroom apartments housing four people, to studios housing six, thus increasing domestic violence and theft (see below).

Petty Crimes Increase To Tijuana Proportions

Many service industry personnel will take to a life of petty crime just to make ends meet. More tourists will report missing diamond earrings, watches and iPods. Wallets and purses left behind, traditionally returned to the guests intact, will be pillaged. Pick pocketing will become commonplace. A pawn shop will open up in the alley behind the gas station, as locals will have more and more stolen crap to hawk. Concierges will begin informing tourists that they can repurchase their missing goods at the Pawn Shop for an inflated price.

Prince Bandar Real Estate Misfortune Creates Pedestrian Nightmare

Still unable to sell his $135 million Aspen estate, Prince Bandar will be forced to manipulate oil prices even more in an effort to maintain his lifestyle. Crude will hit an unprecedented $200 a barrel. Gas prices in Aspen will top $8 per gallon causing a juggernaut of pedestrian traffic that will really annoy the Europeans, who will be the only ones still able to afford gas. Foot traffic will become so problematic City Council will quarrel for months over how best to incentivise citizens to start driving their cars again. RFTA buses will resemble public transit in other third world countries, with commuters hanging off the sides and random chickens clucking up and down the isles.

Losses Skyrocket at High-End Retail Stores

High-end retailers will complain that year-end losses on flagship stores downtown have doubled. The accounting departments will no longer be able to justify expensing such a gargantuan figure to marketing. “We could run ten 30-second spots during Gray’s Anatomy every week for what we pay to have a store in Aspen,” Prada’s Chief Executive Officer will gripe. “It was nice to be able to put ‘Aspen’ on our marketing material right along side Beverly Hills, Palm Beach, London, Paris, and Gstaad, but unfortunately we’re going to have to give up that luxury.”

City Council To The Rescue

Faced with the stark reality that next year’s fiscal budget will have to be kept to a lean $100,000,000, City Council will decide to adopt the property tax policy from the great state of Florida, where homeowners are financially raped on an annual basis. Area homeowners will complain that they would have never bought a $20,000,000 home had they known property taxes would be so high, but City Council will not bow to their pressure. The increase in city revenue will create a windfall so significant that all citizens who work within city limits will receive a stipend of $50 per day for basic necessities, such as caviar, thus easing the impact of Aspen’s recession.

DISCLAIMER:
Despite the author’s claim, the economic forecasting methods used to derive the predictions above are not scientific. Nor are they researched or even well thought out. It is not recommended that the reader make financial decisions based on these predictions, such as betting the farm on a Dollar/Euro currency option. Always seek professional advice before investing your own money, that way you have someone to blame when you lose it.